2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 28, 2012
New Orleans at Denver
Sunday 10/28 08:20 PM Eastern
2 units on New Orleans PICK () (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: LOSS
The bad news for the New Orleans Saints is the fact that their defense has allowed 24 or more points in eight straight games going back to last year. The good news is that they have scored 24 or more points in 11 straight games and in 15 of their last 16. The Saints are now in playoffs mode (must win) after starting the season a dreadful 0-4. The defense is inexcusably bad, but like Green Bay last year who couldn't defend, they have an offense behind Drew Brees that is elite enough to win games. That offense has helped the Saints go 16 straight games without suffering a loss by more than 8 points. They have not been involved in any game over a season's worth of games where they were more than one possession on the short end. So getting points with this team that can score on anyone provides value. Peyton Manning was supposed to be the savior in Denver. While he has executed very well at times, the Broncos are still 3-3. What is bothersome is the fact that the Broncos, like New Orleans, can't seem to defend. All three of the Broncos’ losses have come to teams that score 28.5 points per game or more, and the Saints are racking-up 29.3 ppg. The Broncos are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 after scoring 30+ in their previous game. Manning is no exemption as he is 0-2 ATS here in Denver in that situation. The Saints are now 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when following an ATS win. John Fox coached teams have always struggled as a home favorite. His teams are just 8-20 ATS as home chalk of 3.5 to 7 points. This is too many points. Take the Saints.