This pick was released to clients on July 30, 2012 at 6:08PM ET.
img NFL

New Orleans at Cleveland

September 10, 2006
img1:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
2 units on Cleveland -3 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82)
Result:
LOSS

New Orleans has to be excited about their offense with the addition of Drew Brees and Reggie Bush as well as offensive-minded Sean Payton as their head coach. If Deuce McCallister and Joe Horn can return to 2004 form, this offense will be formidable. But, what about their defense? It's horrible. Last year they gave up 314 yards per game and 24.9 points per game. On the road they allowed 325 per game and 30 points per game. No wonder they were 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS in road games. We can see where Payton's mind is - offense. Why else would he do so much on offense (Brees, Bush) but very little to improve this terrible defense? I expect it to be a tough long season again for the Saints. Cleveland meanwhile is poised for real improvement. Gotta love Romeo Crennel in his second season. The Browns asdded Joe Jurevious and a healthy Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards and Charlie Frye is back for his second season at QB. Unlike Payton, Crennel knows defense wins in the NFL and he made great strides bringing in a couple of former players on his Super Bowl Patriots team - NT Ted Washington and linebacker Willie McGinest. They also drafted defense first taking defensive players with their top two picks. The Saints are probably where Cleveland was last year - major rebuild mode. Cleveland has a year under its belt with Crennel and Frye and I like them to score here against a bad Saints defense. My computer simulation for this game (http://www.freeunderdog.com/CurrentMatchUps-NFL.php) agrees as it has Cleveland winning by 5 points. Take the Browns at home minus the field goal.

TAKE THE GUESSWORK OUT OF SPORTS BETTING

Get my free NFL picks and predictions.

Join 424,657 Subscribers!