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2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

August 18, 2007

18

New Orleans at Cincinnati

Saturday 08/18 12:00 AM Eastern

3 units on New Orleans PICK () (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: WIN

Here we have yet another battle of winless teams squaring off in Cincinnati. The Saints have dropped two in a row and have looked pretty darn bad. We faded them last week, noting Sean Payton's apparent lack of desire to play hard in the preseason. They lost that game vs. Buffalo outright as a 6.5 point favorite. That came on the heels of an embarrassing 20-7 loss on national TV in the Hall of Fame game. Well, it's now officially reached a boiling point in New Orleans (as much as it ever does in the preseason). They are a bit nervous and don't want to continue these embarrassing performances. We think they will be extra motivated this week to atone for those two outcomes. If you saw the Saints and Bengals games last week, you know New Orleans will score some points in this game. Drew Brees was doing regular season stuff, with play action fakes and throws all over the field. He connected with seven different receivers in just two drives, good for 120 yards. The Saints were unable to finish the drives, but beware. This was not the signs of a coach handing the ball off and just going through the motions. The Saints put the ball in the air 41 times for nearly 300 yards so the intent is to get the offense into gear. And in an exhibition game, when a coach is using starters and back-ups to extend the defense, eventually there is going to be some big plays. The Bengals last week allowed an aerial display not often seen in the NFL preseason as the Lions put up nearly 500 yards through the air and 3 TDs. The Saints were off a short week last week and Buffalo was very motivated. If the Saints come out as aggressive as they did against Buffalo, it will be hard for the Bengals to do anything about it. With this being game #3 (with two bad losses) for the Saints, there should be even more emphasis than there was in week two to perform and win. The Bengals mindset is different. Yes, they lost last week but it was one game and they know they performed very well, at least on offense. They know they should have won that game (had 16 point fourth quarter lead). So, they aren't feeling nearly the pressure to perform that New Orleans is here. They are content. New Orleans fits in one of our preseason systems favoring under-performing teams that have been offensively inept. This system rocks and we think the Saints will rock here too, grabbing their first win (or at least a point spread cover).


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