New England at Miami

Bill Belichick has been tweaking the New England secondary all year and he's finally found a gem in big rookie safety J.C. Jackson. The Patriots have allowed 23 total points the last two games as part of a 5-0 run UNDER the total. The offense has become more balanced behind rookie RB Sony Michel, up to #11 in rushing yards per game with the team 8-4 UNDER the total this season. New England is also 15-6 UNDER the total as a road favorite in their last 21 such gaes. They head to longtime rival Miami and the Patriots are on an 8-2 run UNDER on the road, as well as 13-4 UNDER on natural grass. The defense matches up well against a Miami offense that is terrible, ranked #29 in yards, #28 in passing, #24 in rushing, and #25 in points (20.3 pg). In division games, the Fins are scoring just 15.2 points per game this season. The Patriots will be able to go ball-control against a Dolphins defense that is #30 against the run. Long drives featuring rushing chews up yards and the clock. When facing poor passing defenses (teams like Miami that allow over 60% pass completions), Tom Brady and the Pats feast, having gone 15-4 ATS in such games the past two seasons. New England is also 15-3 ATS over the past three seasons vs. teams that allow 350+ yards per game. The Pats' offense feasts here, while Miami's struggles. Take New England and the UNDER.