2018 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 20, 2019
New England at Kansas City
Sunday 01/20 06:40 PM Eastern
1 unit on Kansas City -150 (moneyline) (risk 1 to return 1.67) RESULT: LOSS
The home team is 10-0 straight up the last five years in the NFL's AFC/NFC Championship games and in NFL history, road teams have only won 30 of 96 conference championship games. New England was only 3-5 on the road this season while Kansas City won eight of nine home contests. The Chiefs look to avenge a 43-40 road loss to the Patriots on Oct. 14 when Patrick Mahomes went 23-of-36 for 352 yards and four touchdowns, but was victimized by two interceptions. Tom Brady finished at 24-of-35 for 340 yards and a touchdown with no picks. Tyreek Hill had seven catches for 142 yards and three touchdowns and now-departed Kareem Hunt rushed for 80 yards. Damien Williams has been an adequate replacement for Hunt as he rushed for 129 yards on 5.2 yards per carry in Kansas City's 31-13 win over Indianapolis. The Chiefs' defense has been much improved since that first meeting with the Pats, and the Chiefs have allowed opponents an average of 21.4 points their last five games, which is not exceptional, but enough to support Kansas City's prolific offense. Linebacker Justin Houston had a key fumble recovery and two sacks last week and he has been the catalyst in his team's recent resurgence defensively. The Colts were held to 263 total yards and 87 rushing yards. Dee Ford has also been a force at linebacker and the Chiefs, surprisingly, led the league in sacks in the regular season with 52. Kansas City beat the Patriots 42-27 in 2017 at Arrowhead Stadium, which is known for being a house of horrors for opposing teams. The weather forecast calls for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the teens at game time. Tom Brady has been lethal in cold weather at 24-4 SU for his career with a temperature below freezing, including 12-1 straight-up in the playoffs. The problem is that 12 of those 13 were at home. New England has not won a road playoff game since 2007! (0-3). His home playoff numbers show 46 TDs/18 INTs at 29.2 points per game. But the road shows just eight TDs to eight INTs and 24.3 ppg, and that's a big difference! The Patriots are on the road for just the third time in eight seasons in the AFC Championship game and they lost the first two to the Denver Broncos. The Chiefs also fit a huge playoff situation as well. In a playoff game played on a team that averages better than 2.95 sacks per game and throws for more yards per pass attempt than their opponent to a total of higher than 39 and not a favorite of -7 or more, these teams are 20-7 straight-up. Also, a playoff team that lost this season to this opponent by exactly three points is 12-8 SU in the playoffs. Take the Chiefs on the moneyline.