2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 14, 2007

14

New England at Dallas

Sunday 10/14 04:15 PM Eastern

4 units on Dallas +6.5 (-110) (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: LOSS

This is a matchup that many think may represent a Superbowl preview. They could be right. It doesn't get much better than this. It's just the sixth time that undefeated teams have met in the NFL after 5+ weeks. The Cowboys needed a miracle to get by Buffalo on Monday night, as Tony Romo threw five picks and turned the ball over a sixth time with a fumble. Somehow the Cowboys were able to overcome all that and win, which is what good teams do. Romo stuck with it and drove his team to the final two scores needed to win. New England is also off a lackluster performance against Buffalo as it was apparent both teams last week were looking ahead to this game. The Pats won by 17, but it just wasn't as crisp a game as we have seen from New England. That game could have actually been a lot closer. This game reminds us a lot of last year's game in Dallas vs. Indianapolis. The Cowboys entered that game as a 1 point dog, going on to defeat a perfect 9-0 Indianapolis team. While we'd agree with most that New England is a different and better team, so too is Dallas. These teams are both at the top of the league both offensively and defensively. Dallas had a plus turnover margin in their first four games, and then came up with a big negative vs. Buffalo. The NFL has produced a 66-30 ATS mark when backing teams that were -3 or worse on turnovers in a game after +1 or better in four prior games! The line on this game is inflated due to New England's amazing start to the season, and Dallas' near-miss on Monday night. While most people didn't see New England vs. Cleveland (and just saw a 17 point final margin), everyone saw Dallas nearly go down in flames as a 10 point dog. But, at home, Dallas should not be getting 5 points here (would NE be favored by 11 at home?!?). The Cowboys are much closer to New England than that. While it is often a death wish to fade Tom Brady and this machine called the Patriots, Dallas has some qualities that rival those of the Pats. Tony Romo is as cool as Brady and he has that "it" factor that just produces wins. He is one of the few QBs in the league in the same conversation as Brady and Peyton Manning. He is elusive, competitive, smart and talented. He can put the ball anywhere and, along with Manning and Brady, he can convert any third down - no matter the distance. From week 5 on, fading undefeated teams with a perfect ATS mark has resulted in 64% winners. The Dallas stumble on Monday Night was due to a letdown and look-ahead. It was not indicative of the skills of this team. And, it was favorable for us here as a line that would likely be 2.5 or 3 balooned to 5, crossing the key mark of 3. Take the Cowboys at home getting generous points.


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