This pick was released to clients on October 16, 2012 at 6:23PM ET.
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Montana at Nevada

March 16, 2006
img3:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
3 units on Montana +6.5 (-110) (risk 3 to return 5.73)
Result:
WIN

As we see every year, at least one 12 seed upsets a 5 seed. This is one possible upset this year. Both of these teams have second year coaches and both of the coaches have made it to the NCAA tournament each of those years. Nevada shoots the ball pretty well and their quality shooters don't mind going to the free throw line. They have a star player in Nick Fazekas, who can be limited by Montana, but surely not stopped. Nevada's post player from last year (Pinkney) has been missed all year though as this is a poor rebounding team (about 35 per game). Montana is known for their tough defensive plays yet they also like to push the ball on offense (as seen when they scored 88 points vs. Stanford). Montana likes to make the extra pass and look for the open shot (they made 215 3-point shots this year). Their main weakness this season has come against great rebounding teams who get lots of second and third shots at the basket.  As luck would have it, Montana was able to draw a team whose major problem is rebounding. This will equate into quite an advantage for Montana and their shooters; it is another game where the underdog may win SU and why I like them getting 6.5 points. Did I mention Montana is 7-1 ATS this year as a dog? Three stars on Montanta.

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