Monmouth at Villanova

Villanova is going deep this year - no doubt about it. I like them to meet up with UCONN in the Final Four. And, Monmouth comes into this at 19-14 from the lowly Northeast Conference. As such, no one is giving them any kind of shot here. But, that's precisely the reason I like the dog in this one - value. If Nova has a weakness it is their size (or lack thereof). Bucknell has a Shaq-type player in John Bunch (7'2" and 320 pounds) which could cause some unique problems for Nova in the middle. Monmouth has a very good defense that allowed just 57PPG to opponents down the stretch. Don't get me wrong. Villanova will cruise here but I like Monmouth to sneak under the 20 points. We'll back the huge dog with the good defense here for two stars.