Mississippi State at Alabama

Mississippi State won 21 games last season, but much of the key contributions to that team have moved on and they knew this would be a painful season. The Bulldogs have lost 10 straight games, but the oddsmakers are making it tough on Alabama here as they have the line on the level of the Ole Miss game, which shows inflation. The Tide is 17-8 on the season, but is not an elite team, having been favored by double-digits in conference play just one time, and failed at -12 vs. South Carolina in their previous game at home. This is a reach for them, and they have been known to be a no-show at home vs. a road team under .400, where they have failed to cover the last four. Go with Miss St. and the points.