Minnesota at Tampa Bay

Matt Garza was last year's ALCS MVP and this season, he's picked up where he left off. He's going 6.7 innings per start and has allowed just 48 hits in 67 innings. At home he's put up a 3.29 ERA and 3-1 record. Nick Blackburn has been very good at home but just average on the road where he is 2-2 with a 4.06 ERA. The Twinkies are just 5-16 on the road this season average only 4.3 runs per game so laying -155 here is not bad at all, especially considering the Rays average 5.9 runs per game at home and 6.1 vs. RHP. Minnesota is just 24-44 the past three seasons vs. teams that average 5.2+ runs per game. Tampa Bay is 22-5 dating back to last season at home vs. teams with an OBP of .345 or better. Finally, the Rays are 45-9 as a favorite of -150 or more since last season. I like the Rays here a lot.