Michigan State at Penn State

A pair of Big 10 teams who like to run the football and play rugged defense in the trenches clash for this one. Michigan State brings a ground attack that has rushed for over 200 yards in four of their last five games, including 207 last week in a 17-16 loss to #2 Ohio State. The defense held the Buckeyes to season lows in points (17), total offense (310 yards) and passing (86 yards). But, on the season the Spartans defense has been pretty bad and they are running into a Penn State team that has allowed just 19.2 points per game at home on way to a 6-0 home record. The Spartans will find points hard to come by against Penn State. Coach James Franklin knows defense and the Lions yielded just 87 yards of total offense last week in a 39-0 win at Rutgers. The run defense allowed Purdue 1.8 yards per carry, Iowa 1.2 yards, Indiana 2.7 and Rutgers 1.2. Penn State allows 23.7 points per game and ranks #31 in the nation in pass defense, and #22 in total yards allowed. James Franklin's is 10-2 ATS in games he's coached when favored in this range (10.5 to 21 points). He's also 10-2 ATS at home at Penn State after a win. Take the Nittany Lions and the UNDER here.