Michigan State at North Carolina

Handicapping this match-up, and any UNC game for that matter is somewhat of a chore this season. Which team will show up. There is little doubt that they are the most athletically gifted team left in the tournament, but they are not the best coached, or disciplined team left. In fact, they may be the worst team left in those two categories. Izzo has a whole week to prep his team here, and he does not want to get into a shootout with the Heels. Figure he used the prep time to focus on finding a way to contain the nation's premier interior player - NC's May. Michigan State will methodically slow this game down, and play a very physical brand of basketball, which Izzo is known for. They'll frustrate UNC here. UNC does not have great shooters. They have very good shooters, but not great. That should keep this game close and low scoring. Michigan State has superior and deeper athletic perimeter play. Guards and swingmen abound as the Spartans have multiple scoring options in Ager, Brown, Anderson & Torbert. However, their play isn't consistent (only one game with 36%+ from beyond the arc this tourney). PG Neitzel needs to play spotless against counterpart Felton who is a defensive wiz. The length of State’s perimeter players has helped hold opposing teams to just 40.2% FG shooting which is the best of the four remaining teams. UNC could cover, Michigan State could cover. In either case, I like the under in this high-posted-total game. Michigan State is 9-1 Under on the road when facing good shooting teams (making >=45% of their shots) over the last 3 seasons. North Carolina won't have their way offensively with this prepared MSU team. We go with the UNDER for one star. For more stats and information on this game, check out the preview on my website.