This pick was released to clients on September 27, 2012 at 8:26PM ET.
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Michigan State at Duke

March 25, 2005
img7:10 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
3 units on Michigan State +4.5 (-110) (risk 3 to return 5.73)
Result:
WIN

These two teams played a very close game earlier this season at Cameron Indoor. Duke will be away from their cozy confines here, and expect Izzo to learn from the 58 points dropped by Reddick and Ewing in that contest. I still have major concerns about Duke's depth (or should I say lack thereof), and I'm confident that it will catch up in a major way very soon. They were lucky when they played MSU that the refs did not call Williams for his fourth foul with 12 minutes left. MSU is formidable down low, and they can play defense with the best of em. They'll shut down the perimeter more this game, and Duke will have foul trouble yet again. Three stars on the Spartans and the points.

'Under' bettors had the upper hand in the first two rounds of the tourney recording a 20-25-3 O/U mark as Duke lead the rush to the cash window with a pair of games that played 'Under' posted totals by 27 points in each case. No surprise really as the Blue Devils do own a solid defensive unit that has held it's last nine opponents to an average 59.4 points/game while going 8-1 to the 'Under'. So what can we expect when Blue Devils and Spartans clash in the Austin Regional Semifinals? Well this is the Sweet-Sixteen where defense wins games and titles so I look for a defensive battle knowing Spartans have held it's last three Sweet-Sixteen opponents to 59.3 points/game. The teams owning a combined 2-6 O/U record in Conference and NCAA tournament action this year and being 3-1 O/U in last four meetings has me thinking under for two stars.

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