Miami at Philadelphia

This line looks a bit chalky to me. Granted, the Phillies have played better of late, but they are still a team that had playoff aspirations, and have been eliminated since their swoon right after the all-star break. They have not been a -200 or better favorite since June 5, so there is definitely value here on the other side. They are just a pedestrian 15-13 behind Cliff Lee this season, and his last two years they are 27-31, so far from a slam dunk here as the line would indicate. The Phillies are also just 1-6 in Lee's last seven starts vs. a team that scored two runs or less in their last game, over the last seven occurrences. Back the big dog here, and play with Miami.