Miami at New England

The New England Patriots are at it again as they lead the AFC East and appear to be well on their way to the playoffs, if not another Super Bowl. They first have to get by the Miami Dolphins, and with the point spread off the charts  the win may be had here, but the cover may be a different story. No team has given the Patriots more trouble over the last 15 years than Miami. The Dolphins have nine wins against New England - more than any other team. If you think perhaps a lot of those Dolphins wins came when they were a much better team, that has not been the case as three of those wins have come in the last seven meetings. Three of the wins have come as +9.5 point underdogs as well. This game may look unappealing, but the Dolphins has held their own against New England more than any other team. A dog of +10.5 points or more after losing by double-digits, and now facing a team that scored 30 or more in their previous game have gone 29-6 ATS the last decade. Make the play on Miami.