Miami at Detroit

The Pistons defense faltered in game-three allowing a post season high 113 points to the Heat. I believe the hullabaloo surrounding Coach Larry Brown got to them. Will it get to them again tonight? The public seems to think so, at least as far as the TOTAL is concerned. With last game going over the posted total by 8 points, the public is on the OVER tonight. The line has moved from 178.5 to 179.5 The Pistons know this is a must-win for them as they can't afford to go to Miami down 3-1 as the Heat have only lost two of it's last twenty-seven games in front of the home crowd. Detroit is 20-8 ATS the last three years in the post season. For the Pistons to win, they have to return to their signature clamp-down defense. After last game's high-scoring debacle in which they allowed the Heat to shoot 53%, I think they will bounce back defensively. The Pistons are 7-1 ATS at home after 2 or more consecutive overs this season. Wade has owned them over the past two games but I cannot see that happening a third straight time as the Pistons pull out all stops and play with incredible intensity tonight. Games featuring a good defensive team allowing <91 points/game (Detroit allows 89.1 and 86.6 at home) are 112-61 UNDER (65%) following a combined score of 215 points or more since 1996. As the public overreacts to last game, we'll go the opposite way. I expect a great defensive performance here from both teams with Detroit coming out on top. Two stars on Detroit and three stars on the UNDER.