Los Angeles at Denver

The Lakers took control of the series as expected by winning game five in Los Angeles. The Nuggets are now in a must-win situation and will have to lay it all on the line in this one. Lucky for them they are playing in their building where they are very, very tough. If you look at these numbers, what would you think? The Nuggets are 26-96 (27%) from three-point land over the last four games. Carmello Anthony is 28-81 (34.6%) over the last four games. The Nuggets, as a team have not shot over 44% in any of the last four games. Yet they are 2-2 in those games and still scoring 106 points per game to the Lakers 103. This is despite the fact that Kobe Bryant is scoring 32.3 ppg. It confirms what I believed going into this series: The Nuggets are a much more balanced team. Despite not shooting the ball well at all and their star player hitting just 27%, they are outscoring the Lakers, and still getting 106 per game. How would the Lakers be faring if Kobe was shooting 27%? If Melo gets back his groove this game, the Nuggets can blow out the Lakers. Even if he can't, Denver has shown they can still win big by finding points from someone else. It must be remembered that this is still a team that has gone 17-1 at home over their last 18 games. And in the process, they are averaging nearly 115 ppg. They scored 120 points against the Lakers at home and shot just 44% and 29% from three. If they ever put together just an average game offensively, they will win this one by 10 or more. The Lakers tend to play their best when they need to win, and relax otherwise. Their recent 0-5 ATS record after a win surely shows that. The Nuggets have thrived in this role of a medium-sized home favorite. They are 40-15-1 ATS in their last 56 as a favorite of 5-10.5. I will go with the team in need (and honestly the slightly better team right now).