Los Angeles at Cincinnati

The Los Angeles Dodgers have not performed up to the level of their high-priced payroll so far this season. They come into this game at 35-32 just a pedestrian three games over the .500 mark, and are also off a loss last night. I have documented the great success that Greinke has had as a home favorite where he is 69-25, but the road in a similar favorite role has been just about equally poor at 27-30 with a negative 17.6% ROI. He gets the edge because of his overall stats, but they just have not measured up on the road. Alfredo Simon has matched him win for win, both with 8, and Simon has been tough in day games with a 5-1 record and 2.28 ERA. Greinke is not the same on the road, and Simon has proven to be tough. Play on the Reds.