Los Angeles at Arizona

John Lackey is a top pitcher, but since coming off the DL, he has not built the arm strength or exhibited the same velocity and command that made him a top pitcher before the injury. That affords a chance to take advantage of a reputation line that isn't practical in what is happening now. What is happening is Lackey has made eight starts and the Angels are 3-5 and his ERA is 5.83 and in all eight of his starts, the opponent has scored five or more runs. That is because he is not only pitching poorly, but he is exposing a bullpen that is one of the worst in baseball. The D-Backs are not a big scoring team, but have been better than average at home against righties, plating 4.8 runs per game. Doug Davis has pitched much better than his 3-8 record, as his ERA is a healthy 3.53 and that has been good enough for the D-Backs to go 4-1 in his last five starts as a home dog. I like the D-Backs in this one as a live home dog.