2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 14, 2012
Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Sunday 10/14 01:00 PM Eastern
4 units on Kansas City PICK () (risk 4 to return 4) RESULT: LOSS
The Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Bucs each have just one win each to show for the season. The Buccaneers have had one less opportunity as they will be coming off their bye week, and likely used the time to try to fix a broken offense. The Bucs exploded vs. the Giants, but in their other three games they have been limited to a total of just four TDs. That production, or lack thereof, has put the Bucs at No. 30 in yards per game out of the NFL's 32 teams. The NFL is all about third down conversion, and the Bucs’ efficiency in that area has them ranked one spot from the bottom with a woeful 25.5% conversion rate. Only the Redskins are worse. If that isn't bad enough, Tampa Bay ranks No. 27 on defense, and I don't think that two weeks is enough time to deal with all the shortcomings. Kansas City will be without Matt Cassel who suffered a concussion last week. But Cassel has eight touchdowns vs. 17 interceptions in his last five games. So, Brady Quinn isn't likely to be a downgrade - maybe the opposite. Despite the 1-4 record, the Chiefs are ranked in the top 10 in both offense and defense. They played the Ravens to within a FG last week. The Chiefs are -14 in turnover margin and that won't continue. Without that luck, their record would better match their yardage performance. The Chiefs have the advantage on both sides of the ball here as a dog. The wrong team is favored here. Take Kansas City.