2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 01, 2012
Kansas City at San Diego
Thursday 11/01 08:20 PM Eastern
2 units on Kansas City +7.5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 41.5 -110 (risk 2 to win 1.8) RESULT: loss
The Chiefs’ season has been dismal to say the least, and a huge part of that can be summed up in one word: turnovers. This team is a lot better than their 1-6 record on the season, but the turnover plague has haunted them since game one. Kansas City currently sits at the bottom of the league in turnover margin at a nasty -18 through seven games, which means they are trying to overcome -2.6 turnovers per game. Teams that have a turnover margin in an NFL game of -2 win just 17.9%. If they are -3 in turnovers, NFL teams win just 11% of the time. So the Chiefs’ fate, by turnovers alone has been sealed thanks to turnovers. I don't care if you are the 1985 Bears. If you turn it over like the Chiefs have been, you are going to have a dismal record. The good news for Kansas City fans is that over half of all turnovers are random, and for this to continue is highly unlikely. The last decade in the AFC has seen just one team finish the season with a worse turnover margin. These teams are pretty even otherwise. Kansas City ranks No. 12 in yards per game, while San Diego ranks No. 25. Defensively the Chiefs come in at No. 18 to the Chargers No. 10. The Chiefs’ numbers come despite having to defend 18 extra times, and having the ball 18 less times because of turnovers! KC would be a lot better defensively if not having to defend over two more possessions a game because of turnovers. So, I ask you, are these teams really more than a touchdown different in talent? No. How close they are is hidden in a lot of bad luck for the Chiefs. I expect KC to hang here, especially considering that Norv Turner is just 17-32 ATS in home games vs. division opponents. I expect the defenses here to be the best units on the field. The Chiefs are 10-1 to the UNDER in their last 11 division games. The Chargers are 12-3-1 to the UNDER at home vs. a team with a losing road record. These teams have also failed to reach the total in six of their last eight in San Diego. Play on Kansas City and take the UNDER.