2015 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 28, 2015

28

Kansas City at Green Bay

Monday 09/28 08:30 PM Eastern

1.5 units on Green Bay -235 (moneyline) (risk 1.5 to return 2.14)  RESULT: WIN

The Packers took care of business last week against the team that went to the Super Bowl in back-to-back years. Coming into that game, Seattle knew a loss meant an 0-2 start to the season, so there was no letdown or getting caught off-guard. The Packers behind Aaron Rodgers are just that good right now. This is a tough situational spot for Kansas City, heading out on the road after a crushing home loss to Denver, 31-24. Five turnovers killed them, along with defensive breakdowns at the wrong time. Their weak spot is a young secondary ranked #23 in passing yards. Kansas City enters the lion's den here as Green Bay is 148-47 straight-up in this building, including 52-11 after a double-digit win. And the Chiefs face the best quarterback on the planet in Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has five TDs and no picks this year, and since the start of the 2014 campaign, he has an incredible 44 TDs and only five picks. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. And NFL teams coming off a home loss have won just 38.1% of their games the next week over the last five seasons. Another problem is that Kansas City prefers a conservative, ball-control offense, but Green Bay is strong against the run. NT B.J. Raji is back from a season-ending injury in 2014, while LB Clay Matthews continues to play inside to stuff the run, something they tried in the second half of last season with excellent results. The Packers held the Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch to 41 yards on 15 carries last week. While Kansas City wants to control the clock, Green Bay is an attacking, quick-strike offense. So what happens if the Packers gets ahead 10-0 or 14-0? The Chiefs will have to open things up and that's not the strength of QB Alex Smith, who has weak wideouts and holds onto the ball too often. The Packers are on a 34-16-2 ATS run at Lambeau Field, as well as 39-17-1 ATS on natural grass. In the Mike McCarthy era, Green Bay is 82-25 straight-up as a favorite, including 52-12 at home. Kansas City is talented and may keep it close, but Green Bay wins this game, so take them on the moneyline.


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