2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 30, 2012
Kansas City at Denver
Sunday 12/30 04:25 PM Eastern
2 units on Kansas City PICK () (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: LOSS
The Denver Broncos have been beating everyone on their way to 10 straight wins. They have scored 30 or more points in eight of them, and 26 in another. The only team that stopped their offense was the Kansas City Chiefs holding them to 17 points. The Chiefs at 2-13 are going nowhere. So how can they possibly hang? The public certainly believes they cannot. But, this is a division rivalry game, and this will be the Chiefs Super Bowl. The record is awful, but the team is not that bad. The Chiefs have only been out-gained by an average of 14.8 yards per game on the season. Usually stats like that equate to a record around .500. The problem for the Chiefs is that they have handed opponents turnovers game after game. This team is absolute worst in the league in turnover differential, resulting in a record worse than their talent dictates. But, they have been much better at hanging onto the ball lately. Through their first eight games, KC turned the ball over an average of 3.6 times per game. Over their last seven games, they've cut that to 1.4 per game. The talent is sure there when you consider this 2-13 team has five Pro Bowl players on the roster. Kansas City has done well in this spot as they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on the road facing a team with a winning home record. Denver certainly has not been up to par at home facing a team with a losing road record where they have stumbled to a 7-15-1 ATS mark in their last 23. The underdog has covered the last six meetings. I think the Chiefs will hang inside this massive number as NFL road dogs of more than two touchdowns are 59-39-1 ATS since 1989 including 46-25 ATS when not facing an undefeated team. Play on Kansas City.