Kansas City at Atlanta

We saw a change from last season, or at least a percieved one, in Atlanta at home in week one. Michael Turner ate up yardage like a man possessed. Matt Ryan was effective and efficient in throwing just 13 passes. In week two we saw that ground game in Michael Turner stopped cold, and Matt Ryan look like a rookie QB making big mistakes. So which scenario plays out here? Since Atlanta piled it on against a Detroit team that went on to yield 48 points last week, there was simply no resistance there. The Chiefs offense has certainly been sluggish, but the defense has been up to what the Falcons faced in week two vs Tampa Bay. In that game the Falcons generated just nine points, so laying 5.5 here presents value. The reality is that rookie QBs have a difficult time in this league, especially after there is two weeks of game film for defenses to watch. And, they especially struggle as a favorite. I think this will more likely look like the four-sack, two-INT day that Ryan put up in week two vs. the results from game one. KC starts an untested QB too in Tyler Thigpen. He is young but he is not a rookie. He's seen real game action and a year makes a lot of difference in the development of a QB. Last week when he came in for Huard, he struggled early on but settled down at the end, hitting Tony Gonzalez for a touchdown. This week he's been practicing with the starting team. We'll take a more experienced QB vs. the rookie on a bad team, getting the points. KC is undervalued right now thanks to losing a game big last week vs. a bad team in Oakland. We like the Chiefs to bounce back this week and surprise.