2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 28, 2007

28

Jacksonville at Tampa Bay

Sunday 10/28 04:05 PM Eastern

4 units on Game Total UNDER 32.5 -103 (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: LOSS

The Tampa Bay offense has already lost it's top two running backs and now WR Clayton is down with a high ankle sprain. Jacksonville has struggled offensively all season, but the Jags have been able to run effectively. The problem is they lost QB David Garrard to an ankle sprain last week. It was quite apparent last week that his replacement is not ready for prime time. If not for Garrard going down, this would have been a difficult spot for Tampa Bay's defense, as they tend to struggle against a powerful running attack with their smallish cover-2 defense. But now they will be able to stack against the run, and Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio is not going to put QB Gray Quinn in a position to make mistakes. Quinn has been bad at just 9-24 37% on the season with two INTs and 2.3 yards per attempt. His longest completion is 11 yards. The Bucs have the 5th rated pass defense and the Jags aren't going to take it on, or they lose. Garcia has had a good year, but with a competent defense and no running game, and a team that simply doesn't give up big plays, it will be very difficult to sustain drives. There are not many lined games in the NFL with a total posted at or below the freezing mark, but when there is the games tend to play to that total. There are 21 games where the total has been posted at 32.5 or less in the last 24 years and 16 have gone UNDER while 5 have gone OVER. Only twice has a team scored 30 points in these low total games. The majority of them see one of the teams in single digits. Tampa Bay, with their great defense, has seen a lot of low totals in recent years. In their last 52 games with a total posted at 35 or less, they are 35-17 UNDER. Over the past three seasons, the Bucs are 22-11 UNDER on grass.  And, under Gruden, they are 23-11 UNDER as a home favorite. We will ride the UNDER in a game of few sustained drives. 


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