2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 21, 2012
Jacksonville at Oakland
Sunday 10/21 04:25 PM Eastern
4 units on Jacksonville PICK () (risk 4 to return 4) RESULT: WIN
We backed the Raiders last week vs. Atlanta. Despite getting over a touchdown in that game, the Raiders could have won. They dominated the game. That play however was more a play against the Falcons who were sure to overlook Oakland. With that performance, suddenly Oakland is viewed as a good team? The Raiders are 1-4 on the season, getting outscored 17.4 to 29.6 on average. In their last three games, the Raiders have surrendered over 407 yards per game as their defense continues to keep them from winning games. They have allowed 22 points or more in all five of their games. Going back to last year, the Silver and Black have allowed 20 or more in 12 of their last 13. Why is that important? Since 1989 if a favorite allows more than 20 points in an NFL game, they are 451-1674-47 ATS. That puts the Raiders in a tough spot here, and it is one of the biggest reasons they are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite. It is also notable that 15 of those 21 opponents scored 20 or more points. Jacksonville was punished by the Bears 41-3 in their last game. They enter this one off a much-needed bye. Bad teams off a bye usually come out and play well, as they get a chance to fix some things and feel like they are starting fresh. Expect a top effort from the Jags here. Meanwhile, the Raiders laid it all on the line last week with a chance to upset the mighty Falcons, but they came up short. The Raiders are now 17-38-1 ATS in their last 56 games vs. a team with a losing record on the season. The Jags have had the Raiders’ number, covering the last four against them. The Jags are a bad team - no doubt. But so what? Oakand is 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games vs. teams at .250 or worse. They are also 1-9 ATS in their last ten home games vs. teams that allow 27+ points per game. And, they are 1-12 ATS in their last thirteen games vs. teams taht are getting out scored by 10+ points per game. Take the Jags.