2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 16, 2012
Jacksonville at Miami
Sunday 12/16 01:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Jacksonville PICK () (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: LOSS
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 2-11 on the season, so instantly they draw a point or 2 from the books as no one wants to back a loser. Even with extra on the line, bettors are still backing 5-8 Miami laying over a touchdown. Chad Henne came out firing in his first two games as a starter for the Jags, throwing six TD passes to just one INT. The last two weeks vs. Buffalo and the Jets, he failed to complete 50% of his passes, and was limited to less than 5 yards per attempt. The big difference was those two teams have been great over the last month defending the pass, and his top receiver Cecil Shorts was out with a concussion. All indications are that Shorts will be back in the lineup this week, and Miami is just average against the pass. So, I expect a solid performance from Henne. There is also a sleeper factor at work. Chad Henne has revenge in mind for the Dolphins, and would love to stick it to them. Remember that McNabb beat the Eagles, Kolb beat the Eagles, Fitzpatrick beat the Bengals, and Favre beat the Packers - all in their first game against their former team. The other factor that has been interesting is that the Jags defense has stepped things up since the quarterback change. This team allowed 26+ points in eight of their first ten games. But, over the past three games, they are allowing just 23.3 per game. The Dolphins’ offense has come to a screeching halt with just 90 points in their last six games for 15 points per game. That makes it tough to cover a TD spread when you’re getting just two yourself on average, especially when you’re allowing 25 per game over the same period. It is hard to see the Dolphins at 5-8 vs. a 2-11 team invested in this game, and their history certainly verifies that as they are 6-24 ATS in their last 30 at home vs. a losing team. Henne will be invested in this game, so play on Jacksonville.