2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 28, 2012
Jacksonville at Green Bay
Sunday 10/28 01:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Jacksonville PICK () (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: WIN
The Jacksonville Jaguars head to Lambeau Field after falling to 1-5 on the season last week. The Jags blew a sizable lead vs. Oakland, bowing in overtime. This is a bad team that has become worse because of a lot of key injuries. With their record, and yet another loss, and the injuries, no one wants to touch this team. And of course, the public loves the Packers. While I can't list any reasons why the Jags would be competitive in this game, that doesn't matter. The Jags have been competitive when least expected including last week (we were on them and got the ATS win). Remember that Jacksonville went to Minnesota and gave the 5-3 Vikings all they could handle in a 26-23 overtime loss. After struggling to find their offense, the Packers have broken out and to average 33.3 points per game over their last three. Just as the offense begins to carry the team, the defense which was keeping them competitive has lost their way yet again. The Pack’s stop-unit is allowing over 25 points per game in their last four. These huge pointspreads often look so easy for the favorites, as they should destroy and exploit the bad team. But, it doesn't always work out that way (ask the Patriots last week). These spread assuem that the big favorite will bring their "A" game, which rarely occurs. Since 1989 there have been 97 NFL games that have played to a line greater than two TDs (more than 14 points). In those games, the favorite is a woeful 39-57-1 ATS, covering just 40.6% of the time. It might look easy, but it likely won't be. Take the bushel of points and play on Jacksonville.