Indianapolis at Tampa Bay

Indianapolis is still in the Wild Card hunt despite dropping two in a row. They are a dog, but have the far better defense and more consistent QB in Jacoby Brissett (16 TDs, six INTs). The Colts are 18-7-1 ATS on the road against a team with a losing home record, plus 11-4-1 ATS after allowing fewer than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Tampa Bay is favored but has lost three of its four home games because of a bad defense at #31 against the pass, and #29 in points surrendered (28.8 pg). Erratic and turnover-prone QB Jameis Winston (22 TDs, 20 INTs) is regressing and has been sacked 40 times behind a lousy offensive line. The Bucs have failed to cover five straight home games and NFL home favorites with a losing record are 23-53 ATS after having won two of their previous three games. Play Indianapolis.