2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 23, 2012
Indianapolis at Kansas City
Sunday 12/23 01:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Kansas City PICK () (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: push
2 units on Game Total OVER PICK (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: loss
The Oakland Raiders have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, ranked dead last in points allowed (28.7). So considering that fact, how bad was the Kansas City offensive performance last week to get shutout by them? It was so bad that the Chiefs had more penalty yards than offensive yards almost midway through the third quarter. And, their offense did not record a first down in the entire first half. What is good about the NFL is that after such a brutal debacle last week, the lines overreact. So does the public. They are behind the Colts in this one at over 85% --- the most lopsided bet of the weekend (ask the Lions how that worked out for them last week). Over the last two years, the Colts haven't exactly been doing a lot of damage on the road, including this season with Luck at the helm. Here they find themselves a TD favorite despite owning a losing road record and being out-scored by 68 points on the road this season. It is very doubtful that Kansas City plays as bad as they did a week ago, and they will likely score quite a bit. After a team gets shutout on the road, and play their next one at home, 59% of all those games go over the total if it is less than 43.5, which is the case here. The Colts are also in a Houston sandwich, having played the Texans last week, and they have them again next week. They may be thinking more of that game than the one in hand. Remember that the Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a winning team. The Colts are 18-8 to the OVER in their last 26 on the road, and four of the last five meetings in Kansas City have eclipsed the total as well. Take Kansas City and play on the OVER.