2018 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 05, 2019
Indianapolis at Houston
Saturday 01/05 04:35 PM Eastern
1 unit on Houston -1 (-108) (risk 1 to return 1.93) RESULT: loss
2 units on Game Total UNDER 48.5 -105 (risk 2 to return 3.9) RESULT: win
These teams split their two meetings with Houston winning 37-34 in overtime at home and then the Colts won the rematch 24-21 at Indianapolis, snapping the Texans' nine-game winning streak. DeShaun Watson still had a good day completing 27-of-38 for 267 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. Watson has played in all 16 games this season and thrown for 4,165 yards with 26 TD passes and nine interceptions with a 68.3 percent completion rate. That is close to Andrew Luck's statistics as the Colts' QB has 4,593 passing yards with 39 TDs, 15 picks and a completion rate of 67.3 percent. These teams are also close defensively as Houston allows only 19.8 points per game compared to 21.5 for Indianapolis and the Texans are third in the NFL in rush defense. However, the Colts depend on Luck's passing, but he'll be hounded by a Houston defense that racked up 43 sacks, including 16 by J.J. Watt, who is questionable for this game with a hand injury, but it will be surprising if he doesn't play. The Texans are 6-1-1 ATS their last eight versus AFC teams and they have covered four of their last five home contests overall. Also, Houston has stayed UNDER in five of its last seven home games and 13 of its last 18 against the AFC. In addition, the UNDER is 4-1 the last five meetings and the Colts are 11-4 UNDER their last 15 versus AFC South teams and 7-2 UNDER their last nine playoff road games. Indianapolis won a tough road game last week, but Tennessee was without its starting QB. That won't be the case against Houston and Watson this week. Play the Texans and the UNDER.