2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 28, 2007


Houston at San Diego

Sunday 10/28 04:05 PM Eastern

3 units on Houston +9.5  RESULT: loss

It has been a tough week for the Chargers. The fires burning in this area have caused over two-thirds of team members to evacuate their houses. They missed Monday's practice and we think it will be a big challenge for this team to completely focus on football this week. Philip Rivers said this week, "What's most important is making sure our families are taken care of and that everyone has what they need out of their houses. Once everybody is safe, we can start putting the focus on the week and the game." Sometimes life issues take on more relavance than a game. The Texans are off a torturous game against the Titans. They fell way behind, and put up a huge 4th quarter to take the lead, only to lose in the closing moments. Sage Rosenfels may in fact get the start, and he actually moved the offense better than Schaub. Lots of times football games aren't decided by stats. The Chargers continue to get the same respect from the odds-makers, as if this team is playing at the level they did last year. They are a good team but they are nowhere near the level they were in 2006. The offense is ranked 13th this year, down from 4th last season. The defense was in the top 10 last year, but has dropped to 16th this year. They are ranked 25th against the pass which is Houston's strength. This team has four primary leaders: Coach Turner, LaDanian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates and Shawn Merriman. All four of them were evacuated from their homes this week. It is impossible to think that their focus is on football, with their families, and home in jeopardy. This is a better Houston team than we have seen in the past, and with the Charger mindset in a state of disarray, this line, which was set too high to begin with, looks even better. Houston has won 11 of their last 13 games ATS following 2+ consecutive losses. We will also note that home favorites coming off a bye facing a team that scored 31+ last week are 1-18-1 ATS! Houston has some bite this week, and we'll back this live dog.



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