2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks

January 13, 2013

13

Houston at New England

Sunday 01/13 04:30 PM Eastern

I am also passing on this game. I think this is the toughest of the four games to call. On the one hand, we have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick rested and home against a Houston team that has really struggled of late. After starting 13-1, the Texans lost three of their final four regular season games straight-up and ATS. They beat Cincinnati last week, but barely. Despite an awful day by Andy Dalton last week, the Texans only won by 6 points. So all signs seem to point to a huge New England win. But, teams seeking same-season revenge in the NFL playoffs win against the spread 64% of the time and Houston has a huge revenge motivation here as they were absolutely embarrassed in the "Letter Jacket" bowl earlier this season. And this is a ton of points to be laying against what is a 13-4 team. New England has not been a good play-on team recently in the playoffs having gone 1-8 ATS in their last nine playoff games. In those games they are only 4-5 straight-up as well despite being a favorite in all but one of those games. The public is loading up on New England here more than any other game. But, a case can be made for grabbing +10 on the Texans here. But, I am passing.

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2012-13 Recent Results

Wins Losses Units
8 3 +4.30

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Last 17.4 years

Wins Losses Units
1993 1718 +224.92

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