Houston at Los Angeles

The Lakers came within two points of a sweep over the Jazz, and although much is made of the Lakers' offense, they beat the Jazz on the defensive end as they held the high-scoring Jazz to 92.7 points per game in the last three. LA learned a valuable lesson last year playing the Celtics in The Finals. That lesson was that you have to exert yourself on the defensive end if you’re going the distance. This is top-of-mind for the Lakers this postseason. The Rockets are a defensive-first team, and know that they can't get into a track meet with the Lakers or they will get blown out. I expect them to be physical here early, and send the Lakers a message that driving into the lane is going to result in some bruises. The last two times these teams met, the first halves played out exactly that way, with both teams averaging 89.5 ppg in the first half. This one expects to be played in similar fashion. Houston is 72-51 UNDER in the first-half the past three seasons when facing a winning team. In post-All Star break play, they are 51-14 UNDER when facing a team at .700 or better! With Houston's history and defensive focus, and LA's new focus on defense, I look for the first half to finish UNDER the total.