2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

August 18, 2007

18

Houston at Arizona

Saturday 08/18 12:00 AM Eastern

3 units on Houston PICK () (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: WIN

Houston head coach Gary Kubiak has shown a desire to win these exhibition games, putting forth more effort toward the end result than most. We rode the Texans last week as a +1.5 and eked out the win despite their best effort to give it away and we will come right back with them here. Kubiak was 3-1 last season as a head coach of the Texans and flawless ATS. He has said he will increase the play of the starters in this game by about 67% (25 snaps vs. 15). Ken Wisenhunt has no track record but it appears evident from game one that he is evaluating, rather than programming a team to win. Versus Oakland last week, the Cards had eight drives of 4 plays or less and they gave up 27 points - a ton for the preseason. Nothing we have seen from that game indicates he is trying especially hard to win these games. The Cardinals suffered two major injuries in last week's preseason game (LB Chike Okeafor tore a bicep and RT Oliver Ross tore a tricep) as well as a slew of lesser injuries. Often when that happens, coaches get spooked and back down on aggressively playing starters for fear of further injuries. So don't be surprised if Arizona starters don't see a lot of action in this one. In week two battles of winless teams during the preseason, the underdog has been a great ATS play. We also like to back underdogs vs. teams that have been perennial losers. Here we get a dog coached by someone who seems to value winning and we'll ride them here.


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