2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 29, 2007

29

Green Bay at Dallas

Thursday 11/29 08:15 PM Eastern

4 units on Game Total UNDER 52 -105 (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: LOSS

It's an NFC showdown that dreams are made of in Dallas as the 10-1 Green Bay Packers face off against the 10-1 Cowboys in a game that will likely go a long way towards deciding homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. Green Bay has had the kind of year no one expected, and it is due in part to a career year by Brett Favre. Favre will bring in his 101.5 QB rating, which is the highest of his career. A bigger reason why the Packers are 10-1 is due to a good bend-but-don't-break defense. The Pack are 12th in yards given up, but just 6th in points allowed. A lot of that is due to the fact they have the best 3rd down defense in the NFL, allowing opponents to convert just 31.7% of the time. They have a trio of pass rushers that have been able to drop, or put extensive pressure on, the opposing QB in these situations. They are led by Aaron Kampman (11 sacks), Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (9 sacks) and Corey Williams (7 sacks). The Packers, as well as the Cowboys, have done good defending inside the red-zone, as they have both allowed just 23 scores, which is tied for 6th in the NFL. Tony Romo has led Dallas from a good team to a very good team since taking the helm last year. Romo, at times, appears to be a mirror image of Brett Favre, making a spectacular play, as well as occassionally playing bad, making the forced error. Dallas is an UNDER team as a favorite as they have gone 53-33 to the UNDER when laying points since 1992. In Novmeber, teams coming off a road game in which both teams scored scored 24+ (GB 37 DET 26) have produced UNDERs the following week at a rate of 66-31. We have seen many of these high profile games with two potent offenses get played much closer to the vest (best example: NE-IND). We also have a system that is live for this game that has produced unders over 60% of the time, so we will back the UNDER here.


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