2015 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 16, 2016
Green Bay at Arizona
Saturday 01/16 08:15 PM Eastern
1.5 units on Green Bay +7 (-105) (risk 1.5 to return 2.93) RESULT: win
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 50 -103 (risk 1 to return 1.97) RESULT: win
On the surface this looks like a huge blow-out in the making. But what appears obvious oftentimes turns out not to be the case. The Green Bay Packers certainly have a bad taste in their mouths after coming to the desert a few short weeks ago and getting trampled 38-8. A lot has changed since that game as Green Bay has gotten healthier. They have shored-up the weakness in the offensive line (just one sack allowed last week), and have gotten healthier on defense as well. What is most notable, is that Aaron Rodgers seemed to recover his swagger last week, and the Green Bay offense moved the ball a whole lot better. The most shocking part and under-the-radar aspect of this Packers team is just how well the defense has played. There are eight teams left in the playoffs, and Green Bay is second in holding opponents to 20 points or fewer, as they have done so 11 times on the season. Only the Kansas City Chiefs' well documented defense has done so more often. The Cardinals have had a great season, but their last game was rather eye opening. They allowed a season-high 36 points to Seattle, while scoring a season-low six, even though they still had something to play for. The Cardinals won the last meeting 38-8, but generated just 349 yards of total offense in the game. Let's not forget that Seattle put 38 points on Minnesota at Minnesota earlier then came back to score just 10 last week. Teams that beat an opponent by 18 points or more in the regular season are just 6-13 ATS when they meet in the playoffs, and just 1-5 ATS if it was from week 12 on - not including week 17 where teams often don't have anything to play for. The Packers are 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games after allowing 90 or fewer yards rushing and 50-35 ATS on the road under head coach Mike McCarthy. Green Bay is 7-1 to the UNDER in their last eight after a win, allowing just 18 ppg. The Cardinals are now 8-2-1 to the UNDER in their last 11 vs. a winning team. Take both Green Bay and the UNDER.