East Carolina at BYU

East Carolina has been impressive, winning two in a row while riding a 3-1 spread run. They beat Virginia Tech as a +10 dog, 35-28, then thumped SMU last week, 49-23. In week two they went to the Swamp at Florida and as a +21 dog lost 31-24 going 10-of-20 on third down as QB Blake Kemp had 333 yards, three TDs and one pick. That close call looks even more impressive with the Gators still unbeaten. The Pirates should really be 4-1 as they lost to Central Florida on a 51-yard Hail Mary pass as time expired. QB Kemp is the traditional pocket quarterback who has completed over 70% of his passes with eight touchdowns to five interceptions. The Pirates are 13-6 ATS on natural grass, plus 7-2 ATS in their last nine non-conference games. They can control the ball and the clock with this offense, which will keep scoring down and their defense fresh. BYU lost starting QB Taysom Hill, so freshman Tanner Mangum (six TDs, five INTs) has been running the offense. BYU plays tough defense, too, at 22-10 UNDER the total against a team with a winning record, as well as 5-2 UNDER vs. a team with a winning road record. The Cougars are also 1-4 ATS in their last five games in October and this one shapes up as a close one with less scoring than oddsmakers anticipate. Take East Carolina and the UNDER.