This pick was released to clients on September 20, 2012 at 6:05PM ET.
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Detroit at Cleveland

May 29, 2007
img8:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
2 units on Game Total UNDER 171 -110 (risk 2 to return 3.82)
Result:
LOSS

The question for the oddsmakers in this series remains - can they make this total as low as it deserves to be without getting too much action on one side? The answer is no! These teams have now played eight straight playoff games that have gone UNDER the posted total. Including the regular season, 19 of their last 22 have gone UNDER including ten in a row here in Cleveland! The average score in the three games this year has been 160. Even with Cleveland shooting nearly 50% from the field and 46% from beyond the arc, game 3 still went UNDER. These teams have a long history of ugly defensive struggles as 24 of the last 28 between them have played UNDER. Detroit's calling card is defense, and they have now played 48 of their last 66 as an underdog to the UNDER, as well as 20 of 27 in the playoffs. Cleveland has played 46 of 62 UNDER vs. the Central Division. They are also 12-1 UNDER the past two seasons at home following two straight low scoring games (both teams scoring 90 or less). Detroit is 17-5 UNDER this season as a road underdog and a perfect 9-0 UNDER on the road in the Conference Finals the past two seasons. Games with a total set under 180, involving teams two great teams (60%+ SU) that have gone UNDER by 48+ points in their last seven games have gone UNDER 75% of the time (50-17) over the past decade. Yes, this total is scarily low for an NBA game. But for these two teams, it's not low enough.

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