2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 22, 2012
Detroit at Chicago
Monday 10/22 08:30 PM Eastern
2 units on Detroit PICK () (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: WIN
Few predicted before the season began that the Lions would be entering this game at 2-3, especially with St. Louis, Tennessee and Minnesota on the schedule. But here they are, looking like a bad team. The Bears, in contrast, have looked like a Super Bowl contender, starting 4-1 with the lone loss coming to the Packers. This team has won their last two games by a combined score of 75-21 and their last three by a count of 98-27. Those results may encourage you to jump on the Bears bandwagon. However, the NFL betting market typically does not treat bandwagon jumpers very well. Teams that win three straight games by a total of more than 70 points are a dreadful 22-45-3 ATS in their next game, covering less than one third of the time. The average line in those 70 games by the way is -6.6, so this game fits the situation to perfection. While it has happened just twice since 1989, when these “super” teams have had an extra week to think about how good they are, they have gone 0-2 ATS. As much as they have struggled, the Lions haven't lost by more than 8 points in their last eight regular season games. Detroit saved their season last week in Philadelphia with a late come-from-behind win, or they'd be 1-4 and probably finished. Instead, they bring momentum into this game. It’s a division game and critical for Detroit to hold on to postseason hopes. So, expect a fight from Detroit, staying within this number.