2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 16, 2012
Detroit at Arizona
Sunday 12/16 04:05 PM Eastern
2 units on Arizona PICK () (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: WIN
58-0. That's the score of Arizona's debacle last week. It doesn't get uglier than that. Well that's not true. In the last 25 years in the NFL there has been one worse loss. The Titans lost to the Patriots in October of 2009 59-0. The Titans won and covered their next game. In 20 games in which a team has lost by 44+ points over the past quarter century, the losing team has covered the spread 63% of the time in their next game (12-7-1 ATS). Might the spreads in their next game be a bit inflated? Sure! No one wants to touch a team that lost by this margin last week. That is holding true this week as 85% of the bets on this game are coming in on Detroit. Despite that very heavy lopsided action, the line hasn't moved much from the opening line of 6. That tells you that very heavy money is coming in on the Cardinals here. Yes, the Cardinals were scary bad last week, and they are 4-9 on the season having dropped nine straight games. But, Detroit is a really bad team too, and laying nearly a touchdown on the road. The Lions are getting outscored on the season and things are getting progressively worse. Over their last five games, Detroit is 0-5 straight up and 0-4-1 ATS, getting outscored 128 to 154. This defense has allowed 24+ points in eight of their 13 games. In three of their last five, they have allowed 34 or more points. On the road, the Lions are 2-5. Arizona has their issues for sure, but after an emabarrassment like they suffered last week, I expect them to show up here to atone. This is what professionals do and it's why these huge losers have been great bets historically. Under Ken Wisenhunt, the Cardinals are 11-2 ATS at home vs. good offensive teams (those like the Lions that score 24+ points per game). After last week's 58-0 drubbing, this is a counterintuitive play. But it's the right one. Take the Cardinals and the points.