Denver at New Orleans

The Denver Nuggets have not been the same scoring team on the road as at home, especially when facing good defensive opponents. Against the top 10 defensive teams in the NBA in points allowed, they have been held to 11 points per game below their average against them on the road. The Nuggets are 26-16 UNDER this season when facing a winning opponent. The New Orleans Hornets have been equally good stopping top offensive teams from scoring as they have held the top 10 NBA offenses in points scored to 10 points below their average when playing them at home. New Orleans is 25-16 UNDER when facing a winning opponent this season. In home games vs. teams that average 100+ ppg, the Hornets are 14-5 UNDER this season. that includes a 9-1 UNDER mark vs. teams that average 103+ ppg! This is a pivotal game in the series, and Denver has been 20-6 to the UNDER in their last Conference Quarterfinal playoff games and overall, they are now 17-4 to the UNDER as a dog. The Hornets have now played 15-7 to the UNDER in their last 22 overall. I like this one to go UNDER the total.