Denver at Memphis

Denver is 22-7 at home but just 9-16 away from home where they allow 107 points per game. Memphis is 17-8 at home and they can score here (averaging 102 per game). The Grizzlies also have the defense to hold down the league's highest scoring team. Memphis has held opponents to 94.6 points per game over their last 13 games, leading to a 10-3 record. When facing winning teams this season, the Grizz have compiled a 17-8 straight-up mark. They matchup well here as they are 16-6 ATS vs. good shooting teams like the Nuggets (those hitting 46%+ from the field) and they are 13-5 ATS vs. teams that average 103+ points per game. Denver hasn't performed well in expected close games the past two seasons, going just 11-27 straight-up to a moneyline of +135 to -155. Finally, this is a revenge game for Memphis and they are 9-1 straight-up at home this season revenging a loss. It could be close, but I like the Grizzlies to get the W here.