2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 04, 2012
Denver at Cincinnati
Sunday 11/04 01:00 PM Eastern
1 unit on Cincinnati PICK () (risk 1 to return 1) RESULT: LOSS
The buzz couldn't be higher for this Broncos team right now. Peyton Manning is playing at the same high level he was before the injury. In some cases, he may be even better with 17 TDs to just four INTs on the season. The talking heads can't get enough of the Broncos with most proclaiming they will win out and be a top seed in the AFC. When things get to a fever pitch in the NFL and the win seems to be a guarantee, you have to slow down and consider going the other way. The problem is that the Broncos were winning more games with Tim Tebow under center. So while the offense is moving forward the defense has taken a step back. The Broncos have allowed four of their last six opponents to get 24 or more points. The Bengals average 24 per game and have scored 24 or more in four of hteir seven games this season, so they can easily get to that in this game. The only teams that have kept Cincy under 24 points are some of the best defenses in the league (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Miami). Since 1989 when a team takes to the road as a favorite and allows 24 or more points they are just 119-441-11 ATS. It simply doesn't matter how well your QB is playing if you can't get stops on the defensive side of the ball. The Bengals are getting a lot of mileage out of their passing game behind Andy Dalton, but he has made a lot of mistakes with 10 INTs on the season. The good news is that the bulk of those have come on the road. The Broncos haven't fared well after a big offensive game as they are 9-24-1 ATS in their last 34 after scoring 30+, and that includes 1-2 this year with Manning running the offense. Until the defense proves it can get stops, the Broncos are vulnerable especially on the road as a favorite. Play on Cincinnati.