This pick was released to clients on September 27, 2012 at 8:03PM ET.
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Delaware State at Duke

March 18, 2005
img7:25 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 131 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
WIN

While there is absolutely no doubt that Duke holds a gigantic class edge here, the last 12:00 of the ACC Championship game showed that if opposing defenses can take away J.J. Redick, this team could have a lot of trouble scoring. Given that Delaware State is another of those teams that plays a very deliberate style of offense, I would not be surprised if these teams have trouble reaching 125 points or so here. The Hornets have averaged just 61.7 points per game vs. some soft competition, so how can they be expected to generate any offense vs. this tenacious Duke defense that allowed just 65.8 points per game despite playing in an offensive-minded conference? No, I'm not saying that the Blue Devils will be held down by the Delaware State defense here, as Duke simply has far superior athletes. However, I do think that the bulk of the Devils offense will come in transition off of its defense. Since I expect them to open up a very comfortable lead here, I do not anticipate that kind of intensity for the whole 40 minutes with so many tougher opponents expected later on. I'm looking for something like a 70-50 final score here, which would land safely UNDER this total. Under for one star.

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