Dallas at Phoenix

A well rested Suns team at home? Faghettaboutit! Phoenix is 10-3 OVER at home when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 3 seasons. They are scoring 113.7 in the playoffs and allowing 108.6 over their last five games. The Mavs needed everything they had against the Rockets in the first round while the Suns coasted against the Grizzlies. The difference in this one will be pace, and the Suns should get it running away. The Mavs do not create turnovers, and are basically a very average defensive basketball team, which drives Avery Johnson nuts. They will be exposed here, as they'll have no answer for the slashing nature of the Suns. The Mavs also play a half court game on offense, which plays into the Suns hands too. Dallas will need to shoot in the fifties from a percentage standpoint to have a shot here, and our guess is it will not happen. Phoenix has stuggled a bit against teams that are strong and physcial down low. That is not this Mavs team, who really has no identity, and loves to yell at each other about mistakes during the game. Games with a total of 200+ featuring a team off a blowout win by 20 points or more facing an opponent off 2+ 100 points games have gone OVER 78% of the time (35-10) over the last 5 seasons. Phoenix is as up-tempo as it gets and the Mavs are 12-4 OVER versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. Look for Nash to expose this Mavs team in this series, and prove the value of his leadership. Two stars on the Suns and one star on the OVER.