This pick was released to clients on April 17, 2015 at 9:59AM ET.
img NBA

Dallas at Houston

April 18, 2015
img9:35 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
1 unit on Houston -5 (-101) (risk 1 to return 1.99)
Result:
WIN
1.5 units on 1st ½ Total UNDER 108 -110 (risk 1.5 to return 2.86)
Result:
LOSS
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 213.5 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
LOSS

I can't trust these defenseless and dysfunctional Dallas Mavericks on the road. Dallas is #25 in the NBA in points allowed and #27 at defending the three-pointer. Remember after Rajon Rondo was traded he said he didn't always play defense in Boston? He was also shipped out because of chemistry issues and we're seeing that in Dallas. Rondo’s arrival forged a divide in this Mavericks campaign. Prior to the Dec. 19th trade, they owned the league’s best offensive rating by a significant margin (113.6 points per 100 possessions) and had won 70 percent of their games (19-8). Since then, their 1.04 points per possession drops them to #13, and they’re 31-24 (.564 win percentage), including a sub-.500 stretch (20-21) from Jan. 7th to April 4. The trade depleted a bench that at the time trailed only the Toronto Raptors in net rating. Dallas is 13-29-2 ATS against the Western Conference and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games. Houston is #12 in the NBA in field goal defense and the Rockets are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 home games. Houston is 13-4 UNDER this season vs. good teams (60%+), plus the Rockets are 11-5 UNDER in Conference Quarterfinals games. Houston won the season series 3-1 and is 4-1 ATS against Dallas, while the Mavs are 1-4 ATS at Houston. Plus the UNDER is 4-0 this season when they've clashed. With this first-half total set at a sky-high number, take the first-half UNDER. Also take Houston and the full-game UNDER.

FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Dallas Mavericks
19
36
22
31
108
Houston Rockets img
32
27
25
34
118
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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