Colorado at Chicago

Sometimes when a game looks too easy, it is. Jake Arrieta has had a great season, but he's showing signs of slowing down. He hasn't won in his last three starts and his ERA has shot up from 2.18 on the season to 3.54 over his last three and he's never seen Rockies bats. Colorado counters with Pedro Hernandez  from Triple A. Colorado has averaged 4.9 runs this season vs. RHP, nearly a run more than the Cubs average at home (4.0). As a favorite the past two seasons, Chicago is just 23-31 including 20-27 as home chalk. I'm taking a flyer on the Rockies at a very attractive price here.