Cleveland at Orlando

The Cavs rolled through their first eight playoff games, with eight straight double-digit wins. I don't think too many thought they would be down in this series three games to two facing elimination, but here they are on the road in exactly that spot. The Cavs didn't win 76 times this season by accident, and they didn't lead the league in fewest points allowed by accident either. So when your back is up against the wall, you have to call on what you do best. For Cleveland, the formula is to slow this game down, and belly-up to the Magic. The first-half total on this game has risen 3.5 points from the opener, so if there is any value left, it is on the UNDER. If there is any heart in this Cav's team, the challenge to this team is to play the kind of defense that brought them here. Orlando knows they need to D-up here too. This is essentially a must-win for them as they don't want to go to Cleveland for game seven. They gave up 112 to the Cavs last game so I expect them to come out early with defensive intensity too. The Cavs are 24-15 UNDER in the first-half following an OVER this season. They are also 21-9 UNDER in the first-half coming off a double-digit home win. Over the past three seasons, the Magic are 20-8 UNDER in the first-half at home to a total in this range (95-98). This season, they are 32-15 UNDER as a home favorite and 14-5 UNDER at thome coming off a game that went OVER. They are also 21-8 UNDER in the first half this season revenging a loss. In the Van Gundy era, the Magic are 31-10 UNDER in the first half revenging a loss including 15-2 UNDER when that loss was by double-digits. The Magic are also 12-1 UNDER in the first-half under Van Gundy after allowing 105+ points in back-to-back games. The public is seeing many of these games go OVER and have pushed the line up in a big way. We'll go contrarian and look for the true nature of these two teams to shine through. Things can change in the second half so we'll focus on the first-half where the game should be truest to form.