Cleveland at Minnesota

Minnesota is red hot while Cleveland is ice cold. The Twins have won 17 of their last 20 while the Indians have lost 13 of 17. What's interesting is that Minnesota has been winning with offense (not defense) and Cleveland has been losing thanks to weak defense. Over their last ten games, the Twins have scored 5.7 runs per game. Over their last seven, the Indians have given up 7.2 per game. Yes, Cliff Lee goes tonight for Cleveland. He's been incredible this season. But, when he leaves the game, the Twins offense gets to tee off on an Indians pen that has a 5.83 ERA. Let's not forget this team scores 5.1 runs per game at home and they are 19-8 OVER this season vs. starting pitchers with an ERA of 4.00 or better. Cleveland should be able to score against Glen Perkins who has a good, but not great 4.65 home ERA. We like the OVER here.